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Research
The Now-Casting method initially developed by Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin is now used in many institutions. There has been extensive academic research on this topic in recent years which has enhanced the methodology and expanded knowledge of its applicability to different countries. The following is a non-exhaustive list of relevant research papers
|
Euro Area |
Angelini, Camba-Mendez, Giannone, Reichlin & Runstler, 2011, "Short-term forecasts of Euro area GDP growth", Econometrics Journal and Working Paper of the European Central Bank Banbura & Modugno, 2010, "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Factor Models on Data Sets with Arbitrary Pattern of Missing Data" Working Paper Series 1189, European Central Bank |
| Euro Area countries | Runstler, Barhoumi, Benk, Cristadoro, Den Reijer, Jakaitiene, Jelonk, Rua, Ruth, & van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009, "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise", Journal of Forecasting and Occasional Paper of the European Central Bank |
| Global (IMF) | Matheson, 2011, "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time", IMF Working Papers 11/43. See also: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010, Appendix 1.2 |
| US | Giannone, Reichlin & Small, 2008, "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data", Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May, and Working Paper of the Federal Reserve |
| New Zealand | Matheson, 2010, " An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys", Economic Modelling and Working Paper of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
| Norway | Aastveit & Trovik, 2008, "Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy", Empirical Economics, and Working Paper of the Norges Bank |
| China | Yiu & Chow, 2011, "Nowcasting Chinese GDP: information content of economic and financial data", Working Paper of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research |
| Switzerland | Siliverstovs & Kholodilin, 2010, "Assessing the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases for now-/forecasting GDP: evidence for Switzerland", Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin |
| UK | Giannone, Reichlin & Simonelli, "Is the UK still in rececession?", Vox 23 November, 2009 |
| Ireland | Antonello, D'Agostino, McQuinn, Kieran, Derry & O'Brien, 2008, "Nowcasting Irish GDP", Research Technical Papers, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). Liebermann, 2012, "Short-term forecasting of quarterly gross domestic product growth", Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin |
| Germany | Marcellino, Massimiliano, Schumacher & Christian, 2010, "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics and Discussion Paper of the Deutsche Bundesbank |
| France | Barhoumi, Darné & Ferrara, 2009, "Are dissagregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?", Journal of Forecasting 2010 and Working Paper for Banque de France. Bessec & Doz, 2011, "Prevision de court terme de la croissance du PIB francias a l'aide de modeles a facteurs dynamiques" a Working Paper of the Treasury of France |
| Netherlands | Jasper de Winter, 2011, "Forecasting GDP growth in times of crisis: private sector forecasts versus statistical models", DNB Working Paper |
| Czech Republic | Arnostova, Havrlant, Ruzicka & Toth, 2011, "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators", Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 566-583, December |
| Survey of the literature |
Banbura, Giannone & Reichlin, 2010, "Nowcasting", Working Paper of the ECB, and chapter in Clements & Hendry, editors, Oxford Handbook on Economic Forecasting Banbura, Giannone, Modugno and Reichlin, “Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data-Flow”, in G.Elliott and A. Timmermann, eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, Elsevier-North Holland |
| Note: this is a list of independent research papers, all of which employ versions of the now-casting methodology developed by our founders. However, our founders have not necessarily supervised or been directly involved in all of the research cited above. | |
Now-Casting is a new, online service delivering high frequency, short-term forecasts for the world’s major economies – in real time. These forecasts (or ‘now-casts’) are generated by a state-of-the-art econometric model, which updates all forecasts automatically whenever any significant data release is published. At present Now-Casting covers the Euro-Area, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK, US, Brazil, China. Other countries are coming soon. Now-Casting output is delivered to subscribers via our web site, via automated email alerts, and via data downloads.