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Resources
- Methodology
All Now-Casting output series are generated by a dynamic factor model developed by our founders. This type of model was chosen in order to cope with the so-called 'curse of dimensionality' (large numbers of correlated series) as it requires us to estimate only a limited number of parameters for a large dataset.
- Research
The Now-Casting method initially developed by Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin is now used in many institutions. There has been extensive academic research on this topic in recent years which has enhanced the methodology and expanded knowledge of its applicability to different countries.
- Data Sources
The Now-Casting model for quarterly GDP uses a large and heterogeneous set of predictors, including both 'hard' and 'soft' data (e.g., everything from unemployment statistics to consumer surveys). We use all of the data that is monitored by market participants plus any other potentially relevant series to extract a signal about the state of the economy.
Now-Casting is a new, online service delivering high frequency, short-term forecasts for the world’s major economies – in real time. These forecasts (or ‘now-casts’) are generated by a state-of-the-art econometric model, which updates all forecasts automatically whenever any significant data release is published. At present Now-Casting covers the Euro-Area, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK, US, Brazil, China. Other countries are coming soon. Now-Casting output is delivered to subscribers via our web site, via automated email alerts, and via data downloads.